{"id":5013,"date":"2019-08-24T17:38:48","date_gmt":"2019-08-24T17:38:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/palmer-consulting.com\/ibor-transition-banks-are-not-ready\/"},"modified":"2019-08-24T17:38:48","modified_gmt":"2019-08-24T17:38:48","slug":"ibor-transition-banks-are-not-ready","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/palmer-consulting.com\/en\/ibor-transition-banks-are-not-ready\/","title":{"rendered":"IBOR transition: banks are not ready"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>We are witnessing the historic transition of the reference rates on which much of world finance was built. At its peak, a notional value of over 400,000 billion was indexed to IBORs. <\/p>\n<p>The announced end of IBORs, and their global presence in the banking business, leaves players at a loss as to how to approach this transition.<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: medium; font-family: Raleway, Helvetica, Arial, Lucida, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;\">New benchmarks<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The outbreak of the LIBOR manipulation scandal in 2011 highlighted the structural flaws in benchmark indices. The first corrective action taken by the FSA (Financial Services Agency) was to use actual transactions rather than declarations. Today, the number of eligible transactions is becoming far too small, which tends to make the indices obsolete.  <\/p>\n<p>As a result, a number of working groups have set about transforming these indices. Central banks were heavily involved, as were groups such as ISDA, IOSCO, the FSB and the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC), created for the occasion by the Fed. <\/p>\n<p>These new rates have been selected or created to meet the following criteria:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Risk-free<\/li>\n<li>Based on real, liquid transactions<\/li>\n<li>Low volatility<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Each central bank has drawn up its own specifications. So, even if the ARRs (Alternative Reference Rates) seem similar, they are not all drawn up in the same way. <\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-125401 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/palmer-consulting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/transition-taux.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1213\" height=\"516\"><\/p>\n<p>The most important aspect of this change is the transition from risk rates to risk-free rates. By switching from maturity rates to overnight rates, the maturity premium has disappeared.<br \/>\nIt is therefore impossible to perform a LIBOR = ARR + x% conversion. <\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-125400\" src=\"https:\/\/palmer-consulting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/spread-libor-sofr.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1222\" height=\"532\"><\/p>\n<p>This change means that there will always be a winner and a loser in the transition. This is what makes the transition so complicated. <\/p>\n<p>The various working groups, including ISDA, are actively considering the fairest solution for all parties.<\/p>\n<p>Since 2018, ARRs such as SOFR, SONIA and SARON have been available. The problem is that they are not yet widely adopted. Most players continue to issue products on IBORs, which are easier to sell as they are based on a proven valuation.  <\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: medium; font-family: Raleway, Helvetica, Arial, Lucida, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;\">BenchMark Regulation (BMR)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Following the European Union&#8217;s initiative in 2015, the BenchMark Regulation (BMR) came into force on January 1, 2018 (original text <a href=\"https:\/\/eur-lex.europa.eu\/legal-content\/FR\/TXT\/PDF\/?uri=CELEX:32016R1011&amp;from=en\">here<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>The BMR&#8217;s objectives are as follows:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Managing the risk of conflicts of interest<\/li>\n<li>Guarantee the reliability of the methods and data used to provide a benchmark index<\/li>\n<li>Avoid the risk of manipulating the benchmark index<\/li>\n<li>Protecting investors<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The BenchMark regulation contains 59 articles specifying the obligations and implementation of changes for the three types of players involved, who are :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Administrators who provide the indices used to construct an asset allocation or evaluate the price of a product<\/li>\n<li>Contributors of data for the purpose of establishing an index<\/li>\n<li>Users who use indices as benchmarks. Banks, insurers and asset managers are the main users of benchmarks. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>For users, including banks, article 28 represents the most important obligation. They must put in place plans detailing the actions they will take in the event of a major change to the index. Added to this is the obligation to be able to demonstrate their ability to make the transition to the regulator.  <\/p>\n<p>Article 42 provides for fines of up to \u20ac1,000,000 or 10% of sales in the event of non-compliance.<\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: medium; font-family: Raleway, Helvetica, Arial, Lucida, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;\">Transformation impacts underestimated<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For large institutions, the transition is a particularly important undertaking, given the scale of the players involved. In fact, IBORs are used from the construction of the most complex derivatives to the real estate loans granted to individuals. <\/p>\n<p>Changes in interest rates have a direct impact on the entire value chain of all banking activities: retail banking, corporate and investment banking, asset management, and so on. To date, the main challenge of this transition has been the diagnostic phase. In addition to the complexity of accurately assessing the impacts, the difficulty lies in coordinating its execution on a global scale.  <\/p>\n<p>Once the diagnostic phase has been completed, banks will have to carry out a volumetric survey of contracts, overall index exposure and market risk assessment.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, implementing the transition will involve a major overhaul of financial infrastructures: operational processes, controls, software, risk models and pricing.<\/p>\n<p>The transition of reference indices will have to be carried out in perfect synchronicity, with a two-pronged approach. Professionals will need to be trained, and customers will need to be informed of the changes to their existing contracts, as well as the new products to come. <\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: medium; font-family: Raleway, Helvetica, Arial, Lucida, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;\">A busy schedule<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-125392 alignnone size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/palmer-consulting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/calendrier-transition-libor.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1223\" height=\"446\"><\/p>\n<p>The transition is structured around two key dates: January 2020 for the transition of non-critical indices, and 2022 for critical indices. For the other intermediate stages, the various central banks follow their own timetables. <\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: medium; font-family: Raleway, Helvetica, Arial, Lucida, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;\">An uncertain environment<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Although the BMR came into force in 2018, many players have yet to mobilize. We&#8217;re seeing a lack of communication from the various regulatory authorities. At the same time, central banks are moving forward at different speeds.  <\/p>\n<p>Today, a large part of the market is awaiting the forthcoming ISDA guidelines, which should define a common basis for conversion between IBORs and their substitutes. These are prerequisites for a smooth transition. Indeed, it is mandatory that when products, such as loans, switch to a new rate, the associated hedging swap switches at the same time and in the same way. Otherwise, banks would be exposing themselves to far too much market risk.   <\/p>\n<p>To protect themselves against commercial risk with their customers, banks prefer to wait and move forward in unison on a common conversion basis when the time comes.<br \/>\nSimilarly, no consensus has yet been reached on how to implement this transition. The following actions are the most plausible: changing the contract rate, introducing a new fallback clause, or creating a new contract on January 1, 2022. <\/p>\n<p>In order to converge on common rules, several banking federations are calling for a European legal solution to manage the transition of indices. This is what was implemented during the transition from national IBORs to EURIBOR. <\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"font-size: medium; font-family: Raleway, Helvetica, Arial, Lucida, sans-serif; text-transform: uppercase;\">Are you ready?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It is mandatory for companies to have a detailed action plan to prepare for the transition. However, it appears that many companies are not in compliance, remaining passive with regard to directives such as those issued by ISDA. <\/p>\n<p>We recommend that the players concerned anticipate this transition by carrying out impact studies on their activities. Some players are already working on this transition. In our view, being a pioneer does not imply taking a positioning risk, but rather the opportunity to use this regulatory project as a transformation opportunity.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We are witnessing the historic transition of the reference rates on which much of world finance was built. At its peak, a notional value of over 400,000 billion was indexed to IBORs. The announced end of IBORs, and their global presence in the banking business, leaves players at a loss as to how to approach [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance-performance"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>IBOR transition: banks are not ready<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"IBOR transition: banks are not ready. 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